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21 posts tagged with "wardley-mapping"

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Panarchy, Adaptive Cycles, and Wardley Climatic Patterns

· 5 min read
Dave Hulbert
Builder and maintainer of Wardley Leadership Strategies

In our last post, we explored how the NK model helps us understand the rugged landscapes of innovation and the challenges of navigating complex, interconnected systems. But how do these landscapes change over time, and how can we anticipate and adapt to the inevitable cycles of growth, collapse, and renewal?

Wardley Mapping tells us which way the river of evolution flows; Panarchy—the ecological model of nested adaptive cycles—shows how each boat gains, loses, and renews its resilience along the way. Pairing the two reveals why some organisations ride climatic currents toward new value while others sink under their own rigidity.

Cybernetic AI Leadership with the Viable System Model

· 6 min read
Dave Hulbert
Builder and maintainer of Wardley Leadership Strategies

In the last post, we explored how AI can accelerate the discovery of user needs, helping us to stay grounded in the lived experience of our customers. But as we get better at sensing and responding to these needs, we face a new challenge: how do we design an organisation that can adapt and evolve at the speed of AI?

How this post fits the series

Stafford Beer’s Viable System Model (VSM)—a cybernetic blueprint for balancing autonomy and control—offers leaders a way to orchestrate humans and AI agents without drowning in complexity. The VSM breaks any adaptive organisation into five interacting systems that sense, coordinate, direct, and reinvent themselves. While Wardley Maps reveal evolutionary position, the VSM explains how to keep each component both autonomous and aligned. Embedding the model inside AI-era governance exposes where automation should amplify judgement—and where humans must remain the damping function.

AI-Accelerated User Needs Leadership

· 5 min read
Dave Hulbert
Builder and maintainer of Wardley Leadership Strategies

In our previous post, we explored how to use LLM-driven competitor simulations to anticipate and prepare for the moves of our rivals. But a purely external focus is not enough. To create lasting value, we must also have a deep and evolving understanding of our users.

Leaders default to visible requirements, yet competitive advantage emerges when you stretch beyond the backlog to hypothesise the needs users can’t articulate. Wardley Mapping, and its user needs-focused cousin, remind us that "what people ask for" is only the top layer. AI now gives us leverage to work the deeper layers without guesswork.

How this post fits the series

  • Grounds the flashy simulations and autonomy work in user reality, ensuring the playbook remains anchored on needs.
  • Complements continuous map governance by keeping the inputs to the map fresh and evidence-based.
  • Sets up double-loop learning by emphasising the need to revisit assumptions as needs change.

LLM-Driven Competitor Simulations

· 7 min read
Dave Hulbert
Builder and maintainer of Wardley Leadership Strategies

In the last post, we explored how background AI can drive relentless improvement, ensuring that the organisation is always operating from a position of strength. But a strong internal foundation is only half the battle. How do we anticipate and prepare for the moves of our competitors in a rapidly evolving, AI-driven landscape?

Competitors rarely share their Wardley Maps, but language models can synthesize likely alternatives so you can prepare without guessing blindly. Treating large language models as hypothesis engines lets leaders surface combinations of doctrine, climatic patterns, and intent that rival teams could pursue. The trick is to design the prompts like Monte Carlo simulations—generate many maps, prune bias, and focus your attention on the handful of plays that would genuinely disrupt your landscape.

How this post fits the series

Background AI for Relentless Improvement

· 6 min read
Dave Hulbert
Builder and maintainer of Wardley Leadership Strategies

In our last post, we discussed the importance of positioning and readiness in the age of AI. We saw how a clear understanding of the landscape and a portfolio of prepared plays can create a decisive advantage. But how do we ensure that the organisation is always ready to execute, without drowning in technical debt and operational friction?

The sharpest organisations let AI work in the background, continually raising internal quality while humans focus on intent and imagination. Background agents monitor maps, refactor components, and tune processes so that Wardley plays fire from a better baseline every week. Rather than heroic transformation programmes, leaders deploy ambient intelligence that nudges the system toward higher maturity as a matter of routine. It is the maintenance layer that keeps autonomous strategy execution trustworthy and ensures the diffused agency described in anti-fragile chaos engineering drills does not descend into entropy.

How this post fits the series

Positioning Readiness for the AI Age

· 5 min read
Dave Hulbert
Builder and maintainer of Wardley Leadership Strategies

In the last post, we explored how the OODA loop provides a framework for accelerating decision-making in a fast-paced, AI-driven world. But speed is not enough. To be effective, decisions must be grounded in a deep understanding of the strategic landscape.

Great positioning makes average plays look brilliant; poor positioning turns brilliant minds into passengers. Wardley Maps expose that truth better than any dashboard. When you see the landscape clearly you stop judging teams on charisma and start judging them on the quality of their starting position, their ability to sense change, and the readiness of their next move.

How this post fits the series

Winning AI Leadership Cycles with the OODA Loop

· 5 min read
Dave Hulbert
Builder and maintainer of Wardley Leadership Strategies

In our last post, we examined the collapse of differentiation in an AI-driven world. When the competitive landscape is constantly shifting and advantages are fleeting, the ability to observe, orient, decide, and act faster than the competition becomes paramount.

AI leaders who treat the OODA loop—John Boyd’s cycle of Observe, Orient, Decide, Act—as a living command system gain an advantage over rivals that only iterate plans. Too many teams equate Observe:Orient:Decide:Act with Plan.Do.Check.Act, yet the OODA loop is richer: orientation rewrites perception, decisions adjust doctrine, and actions feed new signals back into maps. The question that matters: how can leaders apply the full OODA loop to stay ahead of autonomous competitors while keeping human values in charge?

How this post fits the series

The Collapse of Differentiation in the AI Red Ocean

· 6 min read
Dave Hulbert
Builder and maintainer of Wardley Leadership Strategies

In the last post, we discussed the age of diffused agency, where AI empowers individuals to execute at a scale once reserved for large organisations. This creates a hyper-competitive environment where new ideas can be replicated and scaled with unprecedented speed. What does this mean for traditional sources of competitive advantage?

AI is compressing the evolution of software so quickly that differentiation evaporates before leadership teams can mobilise around it. Wardley Mapping reminds us that everything evolves, yet AI also accelerates the very mechanisms of evolution—communication, automation, recombination—so the curve itself steepens.

How this post fits the series

Autonomously Executed Strategy

· 6 min read
Dave Hulbert
Builder and maintainer of Wardley Leadership Strategies

In the previous post, we discussed the importance of continuous map governance in an AI-driven world. We saw how living maps, instrumented with real-time data, are essential for making sense of a rapidly changing landscape. But what happens when the map can not only inform decisions, but also execute them?

The next phase of map governance is letting the plays fire themselves. Continuous map governance turned static Wardley Maps into living control rooms. The follow-on step is allowing autonomous agents to interpret those maps and launch strategic plays the moment signals cross their thresholds. This demands leadership that treats doctrine as runnable code, evolves guardrails faster than competitors evolve capabilities, and choreographs humans as the editors of intent rather than the operators of every move.

How this post fits the series

  • Turns governance into action, showing what happens when telemetry and doctrine become executable.
  • Points ahead to anti-fragile chaos engineering, which deliberately stresses these autonomous plays.
  • Sets expectations for later operating-model pieces such as autonomy gradient maps that choreograph who acts versus who supervises.

Continuous Map Governance

· 5 min read
Dave Hulbert
Builder and maintainer of Wardley Leadership Strategies

In our last post, we explored how to use the Cynefin framework to navigate the complexities of AI leadership. We saw that in a rapidly changing landscape, leaders need to be able to switch between different modes of decision-making. But to do that effectively, they need a clear and up-to-date picture of the landscape itself.

AI-native leadership depends on maps that move as fast as the agents they command. Traditional strategy cycles assumed that the landscape stayed still long enough for quarterly reviews. Wardley Mapping showed that components evolve, value chains shift, and doctrine must respond. In an era where autonomous agents execute in minutes, leaders must treat their maps as living systems, instrumented with telemetry, guardrails, and feedback loops that keep decisions aligned with reality. Sensemaking frameworks such as Cynefin only reach their potential when the underlying map reflects what the organisation is actually experiencing right now.

How this post fits the series