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Procrastination

A defensive strategy of deliberately waiting for competitors to bear the costs and risks of developing a new market or technology before entering.

"Do nothing and allowing competition to drive a system to a more evolved form."

  • Simon Wardley

🤔 Explanation​

What is Strategic Procrastination?​

Strategic Procrastination is the conscious and deliberate decision to not be the first mover in a new or evolving market. Instead of investing heavily in uncertain, early-stage development, a company using this strategy allows competitors to bear the initial costs, make the early mistakes, and educate the market. The procrastinating company acts as a "fast follower," carefully observing the pioneers and entering the market only when the technology has matured, user needs are clearer, and the path to profitability is more certain.

Why use this strategy?​

While it may seem counterintuitive, strategic procrastination can be a highly effective defensive move. The key benefits are:

  • Cost Savings: Avoids the high costs and risks of early-stage R&D, letting competitors fund the expensive process of discovery.
  • Risk Mitigation: By waiting, you can see which technologies and business models succeed and which fail, significantly reducing your own investment risk.
  • Market Clarity: You enter a market where customer needs have been better defined and the initial uncertainty has been resolved.
  • Focus on Core Competencies: It allows you to focus your resources on what you do best, rather than diverting them to speculative new ventures.
  • Leapfrogging: You can often enter the market with a superior, second-generation product that learns from the mistakes of the first-generation offerings.

🗺️ Real-World Examples​

Microsoft's Entry into the Browser Market​

Netscape Navigator was the pioneering web browser that created the market. Microsoft famously procrastinated, initially dismissing the internet's importance. However, once the market was proven, they moved decisively, launching Internet Explorer. They used their existing monopoly power with Windows to bundle IE, and as a fast follower, they were able to learn from Netscape's approach and eventually dominate the market.

Apple and the MP3 Player Market​

Before the iPod, there were many other MP3 players on the market (e.g., from Diamond Rio, Creative Labs). Apple deliberately waited, observing the successes and failures of these early pioneers. They entered the market relatively late but with a vastly superior product and user experience (the iPod combined with the iTunes store). This fast-follower strategy allowed them to completely dominate a market they did not create.

A Failed Example: Kodak and Digital Photography​

Kodak, the pioneer of photography, actually invented the first digital camera in 1975. However, they chose to procrastinate on developing the technology, fearing it would cannibalize their highly profitable film business. This was not strategic procrastination; it was fear-driven inaction. They waited too long, allowing other companies like Sony and Canon to define the digital photography market. By the time Kodak decided to act, it was too late, and a company that had dominated photography for a century was driven into bankruptcy.

🚦 When to Use / When to Avoid​

🚦 Procrastination Strategy Self-Assessment Tool

Find out the strategic fit and organisational readiness by marking each statement as Yes/Maybe/No based on your context. Strategy Assessment Guide.

Landscape and Climate

How well does the strategy fit your context?

  • Your map shows a component in the Genesis stage that is highly uncertain and requires significant investment to develop.
  • Competitors are rushing to invest in this new, unproven area.
  • The component is not part of your core, differentiated value proposition.
  • There is no significant, lasting first-mover advantage in this market.

Organisational Readiness (Doctrine)

How capable is your organisation to execute the strategy?

  • Our organization has the discipline and patience to wait while competitors make the first move.
  • We have strong market intelligence capabilities to monitor the progress of the pioneers.
  • We have the agility to move quickly and decisively when the time is right to enter the market.
  • Our leadership can effectively communicate and defend a strategy of deliberate inaction.

Assessment and Recommendation

Strategic Fit: Weak. Ability to Execute: Weak.

RECOMMENDATION
Consider alternative strategies or address significant gaps before proceeding.

LowHighStrategic FitHighLowAbility to Execute

Use when​

  • The market is new, uncertain, and requires high R&D investment.
  • Being a first mover does not confer a sustainable advantage.
  • You have the ability to be a "fast follower" and execute quickly when the market is proven.
  • The component in question is not core to your business.

Avoid when​

  • There are strong network effects or high switching costs that give a significant advantage to the first mover.
  • The component is a core part of your unique value proposition.
  • You lack the ability to monitor the market and move quickly when the time is right.
  • Your company culture is obsessed with being first and cannot tolerate a follower strategy.

🎯 Leadership​

Core challenge​

The core leadership challenge is to distinguish between wise, strategic procrastination and foolish, fear-driven inaction. It requires the courage to resist the hype and the pressure to "do something" when competitors are making splashy announcements. Leaders must be able to create a culture that is patient and observant, but also capable of swift and decisive action when the moment is right.

Key leadership skills required​

  • Patience and Discipline: The ability to wait for the right moment and not be swayed by short-term market noise.
  • Analytical Skill: The capacity to accurately assess the maturity of a market and identify the optimal entry point.
  • Decisiveness: The willingness to commit fully and rapidly once the decision to enter has been made.
  • Strategic Communication: The skill to justify a seemingly passive strategy to internal and external stakeholders.

Ethical considerations​

While seemingly passive, this strategy can have ethical implications. Deliberately letting smaller, innovative companies take all the risk and then entering the market to crush them can be seen as predatory. It can discourage innovation in the long run if startups feel they will always be steamrolled by large, fast-following incumbents.

📋 How to Execute​

  1. Identify the Target for Procrastination: Use Wardley Maps to identify non-core components that are in the early, uncertain stages of evolution.
  2. Actively Monitor: This is not a passive strategy. You must actively monitor the market, tracking the progress of the pioneers, the evolution of the technology, and the response of customers.
  3. Define Your Triggers: Establish clear criteria that will trigger your entry into the market. This could be a certain level of market adoption, a specific technological milestone, or a sign of a competitor's weakness.
  4. Prepare for Entry: While you are waiting, prepare your organization for a fast entry. This could involve developing internal expertise, lining up potential partners, or creating a preliminary product design.
  5. Execute with Speed and Force: When the triggers are met, enter the market quickly and decisively with a superior offering.

📈 Measuring Success​

  • R&D Cost Savings: How much did you save by not investing in the early, uncertain stages of development?
  • Market Share Capture: How quickly were you able to capture market share after entering?
  • Product Superiority: Is your product demonstrably better than the first-generation products of the pioneers?
  • Profitability: Are you able to achieve profitability more quickly than the companies that entered the market first?

⚠️ Common Pitfalls and Warning Signs​

Waiting Too Long​

The biggest risk is misjudging the timing and waiting so long that the first movers have built an insurmountable lead (e.g., through network effects or brand loyalty).

Inability to Act​

Some companies are good at waiting, but they have lost the organizational muscle to act quickly. If you can't be a fast follower, this strategy will fail.

Poor Monitoring​

If you are not actively monitoring the market, you will miss the signals that it's time to enter.

Arrogance​

An incumbent may dismiss a new market as a niche, only to find that it has become the new mainstream. This is what happened to Kodak.

🧠 Strategic Insights​

The Second-Mover Advantage​

This strategy is a powerful example of the "second-mover advantage." The first mover often makes the mistakes that the second mover can learn from. The first mover educates the market, and the second mover reaps the rewards.

Patience as a Weapon​

In a world obsessed with speed and being first, deliberate patience can be a powerful and contrarian strategic weapon. It requires discipline and a long-term perspective.

❓ Key Questions to Ask​

  • First-Mover Advantage: Is there a real, sustainable advantage to being the first in this market?
  • Our Capabilities: Are we better at innovating from scratch, or are we better at observing, improving, and executing at scale?
  • The Triggers: What specific market signals will tell us that it's time to stop procrastinating and start acting?
  • The Entry Plan: What is our plan to enter this market with speed and force when the time is right?

🔀 Related Strategies​

  • Fast Follower: Strategic procrastination is the prerequisite for being a successful fast follower.
  • Weak Signal (Horizon): While procrastinating, you must be actively scanning for weak signals that indicate the market is ready for your entry.

⛅ Relevant Climatic Patterns​

📚 Further Reading & References​

Author

Dave Hulbert
Dave Hulbert
Builder and maintainer of Wardley Leadership Strategies